As we observe a relaxation of the rules in some places, at least regulatory, while still not knowing much of what it is we fear beyond our own doorknobs— we are still in the first inning of full force and facilities used for the kinds of testing and tracing that can reveal an incident rate worth judging (and earlier still if we ‘re going to wait out the the curve of contamination) — it’s become apparent that changes to how we move about and congregate will likely be longer than a few more weeks or months. Some adaptations of confinement and distancing may last forever. Here are some of those things perceived and others extrapolated by imagination.
🍽 The way we break bread:
A change not in the principles of what restaurants make, but a long lasting change in the form with which they offer it to people. Small business was brought to its knees before it could gauge how to salvage what version of their business is sustainable. In dining, stakeholders have banded together well to make every interdependent component work in the new diner-provider dynamic.
The technological infrastructure that powers dining out is pivoting to cater to a pick-up and deliver model. Developers at Tok and Caviar where quick to modify their applications to facilitate an exclusively takeout throughput, with “sold out” tagging, notifications, and a pick-up windows schedule for both sides (maker and diner) to manage. Others like OpenTable likely have their edits in QA as I type.
The raw material is moving through restaurants to would-be diners unplated. Restaurants are passing produce on from their suppliers, boxing them up for their local customers to pick up or have delivered, creatively adding recipes, and charging a fee to make up some of the margin lost by not seating those same customers.
In the physical world, hardware has been installed in restaurants for the same efficiency of service and safety — hostess stands extended with plexiglass barriers, touchless point-of-sale systems modified, kitchens reoriented to funnel dishes through a highly sanitized prepare-to-bag model.
Domestically, people have adjusted to accommodate for 6 feet of space in exercising their social urge to host lunch or dinner — insisting on b.y.-everything — as our cautious spirit insists that even the persons coming to dinner can’t be trusted to have kept themselves isolated enough.
🚛 How we get things:
This shift in delivery of food begets the question of distribution of durable consumer goods. What to do with all that inventory? I imagine management at idled big box and small box retail outfits partner with venture capitalized on-demand transportation systems like DoorDash, Postmates, and Shipt to make the future they always (or reactively) envisioned being facilitators of — a final mile courier service for everything. Much USPostal and FedEx, but driving goods from newly converted local distribution points, i.e. the stores people once walked into to shop in — taking local share away from the behemoth Amazon.
Malls where fewer personnel shop for their virtual client base, making live app-based purchasing off the shelf, of items packed and shipped across town on the same day. But will this be enough to fill the great void of abandoned commercial workplaces, and push money up stream to stabilize the creditworthiness of the real estate owners? What new ways of using this square footage will emerge?
👩💻Where we work:
With every photographers exhibiting wide frames of unpopulated metropolises and exurban office parks, one can only wonder if teeming will ever be a way to describe these city blocks again.
For custodians of places and production engines (i.e. factories), skeleton crews will deploy to meet the new outputs society demands, and concentrate when health indicators permit. For the non/less-custodial, as SIP orders are extended in the near term, two sequential things are happening: (1) unneeded office space is accruing to hauntingly expansive square-footage and (2) the people who make up organizations that can function remotely, are growing accustomed to the adjustments made to keep business going.
The power of congress cannot be substituted forever, even virtually, and the ability to return to the office will be welcome, but we’re conditioned to plan for dissipation now. We will build and maintain our offices, logistically and culturally, to nurture the core strengths and productivity of a group, but with a readiness to evacuate. Minimalism in office occupation demands flexibility in how it is used, and occupied, which suggests that there will be lesser use, in space and in time. Fewer furnishings, and uncluttered surfaces allowing quick and thorough cleaning.
So what does this mean for commercial real estate practices based on 10 year lease making? And for the constellation of goodies and services that sell into the modern, “tech” oriented, office? These will adapt to cater to a remote workforce as much as an on-site one. Just today a colleague received an offer for at home delivery of canned cold brew that would otherwise be pitched to stock large industrial refrigerators, but visibly (and smartly) marketing to a distributed workforce, through colleagues as referral hubs.
📺 What we watch:
Still early here as there was plenty of content lined up behind the starting gate before nationwide lockdown measures put the entertainment industry on time out. Some mega releases where pushed out while others pushed up via streaming, leaving us where we always were as media consumers, asked to log into one service over another.
However, as popular as the “reality” television sector has become, what will happen when there’s nothing new to diffuse? Captivating fiction can be generated in the most spartan conditions. Just a pen, a light, and a voice can do the trick. Maybe heightened activity on social media platforms will give rise to the next great tragicomedy. But “reality” TV demands its subjects’ presence, in specific environments they can stimulate some narrative out of, however vapid. When every gigabyte of reality television filmed before March has been cut and streamed, Bravo will be tapped out of staged encounters, acrimony, and drunkenness. May reality be less scripted, but with more fiction.
🏕Where we will go:
Currently, from SFO, I can book a flight to Paris-CDG through LAX, but I doubt I’ll get my passport stamped at customs just to see the Eiffel Tower. Hardships and essential obligations will need to be proven to pass. All those cancel plans are leveling the tourism business, leaving pent up wanderlust needing to be directed elsewhere.
This summer, roadside inns and country marts along America’s blue highways will see a surge in occupancy. Families accustomed to exotic vacations, who can’t fly to Bogota, will take to the road, tailing those that did the same last year, and before that. They’ll be laying their heads on the same pillow and having slices of the same pie. Crisis being a great equalizer has been observed historically, and rapprochement is its more endearing effect. Ironically, in response to mandated isolation.
May everyone be safe and healthy, at a distance. 🖤
